Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 22.142463 26.586415 31.481266 37.244678 43.815802 51.045029 59.569311
2025-06-29 16.013199 21.923615 29.095514 38.313226 49.711146 63.204270 80.235107
2025-07-06 11.298688 17.321410 25.248184 36.179825 50.572363 68.568668 92.429682
2025-07-13 9.273858 15.595530 24.474396 37.404292 55.247536 78.467635 110.355687
2025-07-20 7.728941 14.159001 23.738309 38.374103 59.405200 87.710036 127.727894
2025-07-27 6.632892 13.147776 23.384602 39.700894 63.979516 97.600114 146.302302
2025-08-03 5.685070 12.168782 22.889783 40.667612 67.981898 106.793206 164.246195
2025-08-10 4.639631 10.795089 21.542220 40.113566 69.596960 112.591755 177.625487
2025-08-17 3.955292 9.936027 20.903138 40.556595 72.656060 120.515371 194.238969
2025-08-24 3.295678 8.977068 19.938864 40.321534 74.568612 126.758089 208.594700
2025-08-31 2.609124 7.793606 18.381102 38.877277 74.377804 129.743709 218.194626
2025-09-07 2.270361 7.306741 18.065334 39.554512 77.649390 138.108248 236.051731
2025-09-14 1.776586 6.354654 16.764038 38.457034 78.123991 142.545038 248.826772
2025-09-21 1.543051 6.009943 16.678484 39.650596 82.655303 153.712738 272.540041
2025-09-28 1.126634 5.001570 14.963357 37.463729 81.031571 154.803761 280.539613
2025-10-05 0.986406 4.772622 14.976317 38.722817 85.669072 166.354699 305.460087
2025-10-12 0.852897 4.515591 14.874814 39.719622 89.861615 177.312699 329.783070
2025-10-19 0.753775 4.341594 14.947800 41.083085 94.806701 189.723955 356.847133
2025-10-26 0.653375 4.120777 14.860012 42.076360 99.084695 201.138488 382.622877
2025-11-02 0.517606 3.686051 14.114000 41.507110 100.264338 207.193212 399.711559
2025-11-09 0.434351 3.435847 13.832145 41.962301 103.477455 216.919865 423.197705
2025-11-16 0.348345 3.117384 13.284349 41.720790 105.248453 224.118218 442.610078
2025-11-23 0.255100 2.682996 12.278353 40.236735 104.341031 226.409639 453.697202